Tracking Retail Shopping Trends in 2012 and Beyond
Amazon.com will outpace Wal-Mart, free shipping will become the online norm, and mobile commerce will take a larger role in retail sales.
Those were a few predictions for the coming year offered in an April 18 webinar presented by Moss Adams Capital and Moss Adams Apparel Group.
Over the last six years, e-commerce has more than doubled to $60 billion volume, Kaufman said. Retailers that are positioned to capitalize on this growth, such as Amazon, are better positioned than those following traditional models, such as big-box stores.
“Wal-Mart is the big gorilla that took over the world,” said Frank Kaufman, business assurance partner for Moss Adams. But, Kaufman said, business is shifting to online retailer Amazon, which “will surpass Wal-Mart’s volume over time,” he said.
The online retailer’s Amazon Prime service, which extends free, expedited shipping in exchange for an annual membership fee, has helped create a consumer expectation of similar services at other retailers. Deep discounts, deals and free shipping are the costs of doing business, Kaufman said.
At the same time, mobile retail is becoming increasingly important as consumers use smartphones and tablets to shop online.
“I’m worried sometime in the next year the little girl across the street will come by with an iPad to sell me Girl Scout cookies,” Kaufman joked. Although Kaufman said he is seeing more pure-play retailers such as Amazon starting up, there are advantages to being an “omnichannel” retailer.
“When people are making purchases, 60 percent of the time, they’re [accessing] more than one touch point,” he said.
And regardless of which channel they use, consumers make about three visits before they buy.
According to the research presented, 46 percent of shoppers will visit the store first, but 48 percent will visit the website first. A majority—62 percent—go to the website to research products, with 38 percent visiting with an intent to buy.
And—for now—conversion, or the likelihood to purchase, is highest in bricks-and-mortar stores, where the conversion rate is 84 percent. Online shopping is growing, at 76 percent, as is mobile shopping, at 67 percent.
“I believe for certain categories the ability to go into a store will always preside,” Kaufman said. “But overall, 12 to 13 years out, the majority of commerce will be done online.”—Alison A. Nieder
