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During the recession, consumers around the world tightened their belts, causing world exports to nosedive and container traffic to plummet.

But maritime-industry economists see a sound resurgence in exports shipped from Asia to North America and Europe, resulting in global container traffic growing at a healthy 7.1 percent a year between 2010 and 2015.

That was the word at a recent online seminar called “The Shifting Economy: What Does It Mean for Global Transportation?” It was organized by IHS Global Insight, an economic- and financial-forecasting company in Lexington, Mass.

Maritime experts said one of the steepest declines in container traffic occurred last year on the trans-Pacific route between Asia and the U.S. West Coast.

In 2009, container traffic on that route slumped 17.8 percent, affecting major cargo-container hubs such as the Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach.

But container volumes on the trans-Pacific route are rising at a healthy pace. Economists expect traffic to climb 12.3 percent this year, 8 percent next year and 7.8 percent in 2012.

“Exports from the Far East to North America and Europe bounced back as importers began to restock their depleted inventories as well as tried to cope with renewed sales growth,” said Juuml;rgen Sorgenfrei, director of consulting services, maritime and hinterland logistics, for IHS Global Insight. “Added to this was the growth of intermediate goods as manufacturing picked up in both regions.”

In October, the Port of Los Angeles’ imported-container volume bumped up 5.4 percent from the same time last year. For the first 10 months of this year, container traffic grew nearly 17 percent. At the Port of Long Beach, container traffic was up 35.6 percent for October and the year. While cargo volumes have grown, shipping lines have slowed the pace at which they sail on many of their routes. This strategy, called slow-steaming, has saved money on fuel, which is helping the industry recoup some of the $15 billion it lost last year.

“Slow-steaming was made permanent on many routes,” Sorgenfrei observed, noting there are still routes that can be added to the slow-steaming schedule. Slow-steaming adds two to three days to the time it takes to transport cargo across the ocean.

Rollercoaster rates

Last year, ocean freight rates plummeted to some of their lowest levels in recent memory. But that all changed this year with demand for cargo space and fuel prices rising rapidly. In the last year, bunker fuel prices have increased by more than 50 percent.

“For the next couple of years, oil prices will set the freight rates,” said Christopher Paring;llsson, director of maritime consulting services, world and Europe, for IHS Fairplay, which participated in the online seminar.

However, shipping lines are bringing more vessels into service after mothballing some 600 ships, or 10 percent of the world’s container ships, during the recession. This will ease demand for cargo space as larger vessels are re-established, primarily on the Asia-to-Europe route.

Another factor affecting freight rates is the prospect of major shipping lines consolidating to increase profits. “Some of the eight largest operators [of shipping lines] have less than half the market,” Paring;llsson said. “There is still much room for consolidation, which normally takes place during a recession. But this time around, the financing sectors were not available. We expect consolidation to initiate now.”

Shifting economic power

The post-recession world is seeing a realignment of economic strength that will shift power from the West to the East. Over the next 10 years, China and other Asian countries will grow much more rapidly than the Old World economies of Europe and the United States.

“Asia is in the fast lane, and Europe and the United States are in the slow lane,” Sorgenfrei said.

In 2009, the United States’ gross domestic product made up 24.3 percent of the world’s economy while China’s GDP accounted for only 8.6 percent of that.

By 2020, the United States and China will each contribute 18.2 percent to the world’s GDP.

Also, domestic demand in Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa is becoming more important over time as a larger middle class emerges. This will require better rail connections and highways to deliver goods from seaports to inner regions of these areas.

Possible stormy weather

Maritime economists believe the shipping industry has a vibrant future. But there are a few black clouds looming.

One is the financial collapse of Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain, known as the PIGS, because of their huge debt problem. The other is the threat of overzealous fiscal austerity programs in Europe as these countries try to fix those debts.

“Heavily indebted governments need exit strategies from their budget deficits or the financial markets will impose it on them,” Sorgenfrei said

The good news is that maritime experts don’t see any threat of a double-dip recession.