Positive Employment Picture by End of 2010 Expected
The economic outlook for California should be brighter by the end of the year as hiring begins to pick up.
That was the word from the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University, which released a report on Aug. 4 showing that the employment scenario is improving. One gray area, however, is California’s construction industry, which shows continued weakness.
The center’s California Index of Leading Employment Indicator increased from 96.2 in the second quarter of 2009 to 99.8 in the third quarter. Since the second quarter of 2008, the leading indicator index has been below 100, where anything below 100 means year-over-year job losses.
Three of the four components of the indicator—real GDP—meaning gross domestic product adjusted for price changes—real exports and the S&P500—improved in the second quarter of 2010 compared with the same period one year earlier. Real GDP increased 3.2 percent, real exports grew by 14.4 percent and the S&P500 was up 12.1 percent. However, construction spending in California declined 36.6 percent in the second quarter of 2010 as well as being down 34.9 percent in the first quarter of 2010.
“The improvement in the indicator series is consistent with our earlier forecasts that year-over-year job growth will turn positive in the fourth quarter of this year, followed by a gradual decline in the unemployment rate,” the report said.—Deborah Belgum
