U.S. Port Activity Expected to Pick Up in 2010 After Two-Year Decline
Economists are predicting that signs of improvement are on the horizon for port traffic, which was down at most U.S. ports in 2009.
According to IHS Global Insight and the National Retail Federation, which publish the monthly “Port Tracker” report, major U.S. ports should see a year-over-year improvement in container traffic in February. “This could be the turnaround we’ve been waiting to see for a long time,” said Jonathan Gold, the NRF’s vice president of supply-chain and customs policy. “There’s not enough data yet to establish a clear trend, but we’re hopeful that this is a sign of recovery.”
IHS Global Insight economist Paul Bingham said February’s cargo-container traffic is expected to hit 973,872 20-foot containers, a rise of 16 percent over February 2008, and March is forecast to see a 5 percent increase to 1.05 million containers.
Certainly, the recession had an impact on port traffic in 2009. The Port of Los Angeles saw a 15.4 percent drop in cargo-container traffic during the first 10 months of 2009 while its neighbor port, the Port of Long Beach, was even harder hit, with a 24 percent decline in container traffic.
By September, the nation’s ports had experienced 27 months of year-over-year cargo declines. IHS Global Insight predicted that 2009 would see nearly a 17 percent drop in cargo-container traffic over 2008, with a total volume of 12.7 million containers. That’s the lowest number since 2003, when 12.47 million containers passed through the nation’s principal ports.
“The second half of 2009 has continued to see declines from 2008’s levels but not as large as we saw during the first half of this year,” Bingham said. “These less-than-bad numbers are evidence that the industry is seeing early signs of recovery.”—Deborah Belgum
