Denim Sales Starting to Look Blue
The run on blue jeans isn’t over yet. But it is definitely slowing down.
According to a new study by The NPD Group, a leading provider of consumer and retail information, all categories of denim sales in 2006 grew 3.9 percent when measured in unit sales and only 3.4 percent when measured in dollars.
That is a marked decline from 2005, when jeans posted a 7.7 percent jump in dollar sales over the previous year.
While blue jeans are still selling, women, a bellwether for the market, showed less interest in the item last year. For the first time in five years, sales of women’s jeans were down in 2006. Dollar sales for women’s jeans were down 1.8 percent while unit sales were down 2.3 percent.
Some hope lies in men’s denim, which saw dollar sales grow by 5.4 percent last year, said Marshal Cohen, NPD’s chief industry analyst for the company based in Port Washington, N.Y.
However, there is some cause for concern. “When I look at these numbers I know that women are the leading drivers for jeans sales. As goes the women’s business, so goes the kids’ and, eventually, the men’s market,” Cohen said in a statement. He noted that women were the primary drivers behind the premium-denim surge that launched a renewed interest in blue jeans across all segments.
Instead, lower-priced but similarly styled jeans from mass merchants and chain stores are eating into the women’s premium-denim market. And women are turning away from denim as the “must have” item.
Now, pricey handbags and shoes are absorbing women’s disposable income. “I think what we’re seeing is the status handbag becoming this year’s replacement for premium jeans,” Cohen said.
Sales will continue to slow, Cohen warns. “The biggest concerns I have are for the stores that are in the denim business as a peripheral business. And my second biggest concern would be the premium-denim brands,” he said.
Still, the bubble isn’t bursting. “But it sure is looking like we need to watch the levels of inventory very carefully,” Cohen warned.
—Erin Barajas
