Local Study Points to Bright Economic Future for California
Could an economic boomlet be in the cards for California? Perhaps.
A recent Chapman University study of economic indicators showed that California’s future is looking bright for the next six months.
The result is continued economic recovery and job growth in a state whose economy is considered the fifth largest in the world—ahead of France, Italy and China.
The Orange, Calif.–based university’s California Leading Economic Indicators Series is at 1.28, the highest it has been in more than two years.
“When the indicator is over 1, it means we are going to see positive job growth,” said Esmael Adibi, director of the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University, which conducts the quarterly survey. “When jobs pick up, people’s income increases and their spending increases. Every sector, including apparel, is going to enjoy [benefits] from that spending.”
The study shows the nation’s gross domestic product, one economic indicator, grew 3.3 percent in the third quarter of 2003 over the same period last year. In California, residential construction has gone gangbusters throughout 2003 while nonresidential construction has declined. The result is that overall construction, another economic indicator, went down 2 percent in the third quarter of 2003 compared with the same period last year. But that’s better than the 5 percent decline the industry saw during the first two quarters of this year. “It’s not as much of a drag,” Adibi said.
Other indicators that looked better included the Standard & Poor’s 500, which started recovering at the beginning of the year, and the country’s real exports, which held steady. —Deborah Belgum
