Back-to-School Sales Flat
Already in a sales slump, retailers may be facing a dismal back-to-school season, or so says a recently released survey from Deloitte & Touche LLP.
Retailers can expect the coming season to be flat, with 60 percent of Southern California consumers spending about the same during the period as last year—$200 or more per child—according to the survey of 422 families.
“The results aren’t all that bad given the financial climate,” said Tony Cherbak, a partner in the retail practice at Deloitte & Touche. “Right now, the consumer sentiment is wounded and they’re looking to stretch their dollars further.”
With the back-to-school season an important gauge of holiday sales results, retailers face a potentially gloomy fourth quarter. Cherbak, however, cautions that it’s too early to predict the holiday shopping season.
“If the stock market and financial climate stabilize, that will go a long way to buoying spending patterns, but if we have any more terrorist threats and/or significant financial disasters, that could have an adverse impact,” he said.
In the survey, department stores lost significant ground, with only 29 percent of respondents planning to shop there, down from 39 percent last year. Standing to gain are discounters, with 40 percent of respondents planning to visit the likes of Wal-Mart and Target compared to 33 percent last year. Fashion-driven specialty boutiques will also benefit, as 26 percent—compared to 20 percent last year—plan to shop at stores including Wet Seal, J.Crew and others.
Another way shoppers are finding bargains is through the Internet. Around 20 percent of the respondents plan to shop online compared to 13 percent last year.
A sour economy and dwindling confidence in corporate America are partly to blame for reined-in spending habits, but so is the lack of new fashion direction on retailers’ floors, according to Sandy Potter, a partner in the juniors buying office of Directives West in Los Angeles.
“Retailers didn’t place as much newness forward in the June buying market based on a soft May and they’re shooting themselves in the foot,” Potter said. “They want to be cautious, but if you stop the flow of newness, there’s not much incentive to buy.”
Retailers say they’re simply capitalizing on the strength of existing trends.
“It’s true to a degree....There isn’t tons of newness out there, but there are different ways to interpret newness,” said Shawn Lambertsen-Forbes, Macy’s West fashion director for juniors and children, adding that sales are on track for the season.
She points out that bohemian-influenced peasant tops and styles are the key drivers of sales at stores, reinterpreted for fall in layered looks with vests in knit, suede, denim and faux fur. Designers XOXO and Rampage are leading the trend, with more Western twists such as fringe details in the tops, floor-length skirts and denim bottoms. Sporty athletic sets are another carryover look from labels Tommy Hilfiger, Self Esteem and Ener~chi. J.Lo’s line of velour jumpsuits is also a top seller, she said.
Skate- and surf-inspired styles offer an alternative to the feminine looks. In the last eight months, Macy’s has begun carrying Dickies, Hurley and Split.
“Dickies’ twill pants and logo tees are blowing out of the stores,” Lambertsen-Forbes said. “These looks are for the girl who isn’t showing off her belly.”
At Foothill Ranch, Calif.-based Wet Seal, a spokeswoman said there’s a back-to-school focus on texture with interest in napped fabrics including corduroy, moleskin and chenille. Gauze bohemian tops will take on sheens and the Asian influence of kimono sleeves and obi belts will rival bohemian looks, she said. —Nola Sarkisian-Miller
