Economy: April 27, 2001
The Consumer Confidence Index fell to 109.2 from 116.9 in April, according to the Conference Board, the New York-based organization that measures the index, which is based on a monthly household questionnaire; April’s level marks a return to February’s Consumer Confidence level, which was the lowest level since 1996; the Conference Board attributed the decrease to the threat of layoffs...The Federal Reserve cut short-term interest rates half a point to 4.5 percent in a surprise move that bolstered stock prices...Two economic forecasting agencies have issued competing assessments of the economy—the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) found that a U.S. recession is unavoidable based on its weekly and monthly indexes, which measure business cycles in several industries, including manufacturing, finance and construction; however, the Conference Board determined the economy to be merely slowing based on its Leading Economic Indicator index, which fell 0.3 percent in March to 108.5, a drop not deemed significant enough to indicate a recession; the index is used to predict the state of the economy over a three-to-six-month period...The U.S. trade deficit dropped by $6.26 billion in February to $26.99 billion, ending eight years of continuing growth in U.S. imports.
